You can say that we learned a lot of Americans he even joked

Against all expectations, the international air transport should become overall recipient this year. According to the latest estimate of the Association of international air transportation (Iata), meeting in the General Assembly in Berlin, his 230 member companies should reach $ 2.5 billion of profits in 2010, for a turnover of 545 billion, 9.9 billion loss in 2009. Iata, which was still in March on 2.8 billion deficit for the current year, has revised its forecasts upwards, because of the stronger rebound than expected air traffic.

After the 9 rise in the first quarter, Iata now provides a growth of 7.1 of passenger traffic and 18.5 of cargo against previously 5.6 and 12. "Global traffic is back to its level from before the crisis", welcomed, yesterday, Giovanni Bisignani, Iata Director-General.

But this good news suffers a big exception: European airlines should indeed remain heavily deficit this year. The estimate by the Organization of European losses in 2010 even reviewed 2.2 to 2.8 billion, against $ 4.4 billion last year. Europe would be the only region to remain in the red, since even the American companies subscribed to deficits for years, would be ultimately likely to generate a modest accumulated profit of 1.9 billion, compared to 2.7 billion loss in 2009. The most spectacular relief would, however, that Asian companies, which could reach 2.2 billion of profits against 2.7 billion of losses.

Why such a gap between Europe and the rest of the world The first explanation advanced is the impact of the volcanic crisis, which would have cost total of 1.8 billion to the Iata companies and more than 1 billion euros at the only European companies, according to an estimate still interim of the Association of European airlines (AEA).

Cyclical nature

But the main reason for this discrepancy is elsewhere: "is first and foremost the weakness of Europe's economic growth", said Giovanni Bisignani, who also mentioned the decline of the euro against the dollar, which added a portion of the costs, not to mention the recent strikes in the European sky, "hard to understand, given the current fragile businesses", he commented. "It could not grant wage increases when it accumulated 47 billion in losses over 10 years." "Unions must stop strike and cooperate," said the pattern of the Iata, in reference to the conflict in British Airways, which was just entering its fourth week.

Philosopher, Lufthansa boss Wolfgang Mayrhuber, prefers to refer, for its part, the cyclical nature of air transport. "Two years ago, asked why the American companies lost money while European companies were beneficiaries. Today, it is the opposite. "You can say that we learned a lot of Americans", he even joked. According to him, the current difficulties are before all the result of savings measures imposed in large European enterprises, in the aftermath of the financial crisis and which should go in easing over time.

But Tony Tyler, Cathay Pacific pattern, the fundamental explanation of European underperformance and the spectacular Asian remedy lies above all in the natural growth of traffic, much stronger in emerging markets. Even if Asian companies have been severely tested by the fall of cargo traffic and the traffic, they can count on the double-digit demand growth. Same thing for the South American companies and the Middle East, which also rely on these emerging markets. According to Iata, the middle class of these new countries, heart of air target, should move from 1.5 to 3.5 billion people by 2050, including a quarter will be Chinese and Indians. Global air traffic, it should reach at the same time, 16 billion passengers, compared to 2.4 billion today. To stay in the race, European companies will have to be sufficiently competitive to get more growth outside their home markets.