The alliance of two sick Giants convinced but not all analysts

Detroit Titans play their last card face the risk of bankruptcy. Concordant sources, number an American General Motors (GM) automobile, which the courts fell by 80 since the beginning of the year, has begun preliminary discussions with the investment fund Cerberus to an alliance or a merger with Chrysler. Such a merger could allow GM, including the risk of bankruptcy in the medium term is passed more than 50 according to some analysts, to consolidate its market share to Toyota and widen the gap with Ford. The alliance of two sick Giants convinced but not all analysts. According to the American press, the Fund Cerberus, who took 80 of the capital of Chrysler to Daimler, in August 2007, continue further discussions with other stronger as manufacturers Renault-Nissan at the same time. Even if the group led by Carlos Ghosn wants to grow in the United States, the idea of a marriage also risked in a context of crisis whistled however no doubt the stock market. Meanwhile, Ford, whose sales have declined by 35 in September, would consider the sale of its stake in Mazda (valued at $ 1.3 billion) to try to bail out. The Wall Street Journal revealed bonus, Sunday, that Ford had recently closed the door to GM which had tested the idea of a possible merger between the two groups. "As we have already said, we are exploring a number of potential global partnerships, as well as opportunities for growth around the world", Chrysler said yesterday. The "New York Times" on October 11, which cites two sources close to the record, the discussions between GM and Chrysler started "there more than a month" and would have 50 chance of success even if the current stock market shocks complicate negotiations. Under the terms of the proposed scheme, Cerberus, which also came to the capital of the financial arm of GM, GMAC, in 2006, would retain a stake in the new derived set of the merge. Any agreement would involve prior resumption by Cerberus of 19.9 in Chrysler still held by Daimler.

2009 would be worse

In the aftermath of a disastrous September month, which saw total sales of vehicles in the United States plunged by 27, the questions on the financial viability of the "big three" multiply. The $ 25 billion of concessional loans promised by Washington to the automotive groups may arrive later. Last weekend, Standard & Poor's suggesting that GM and Ford would soon have choice to get bankruptcy. "We believe that GM and Ford are currently enough cash for the rest of 2008, if one takes into account the level of cash and lines of credit available, but the accelerated deterioration of the fundamentals of the sector will seriously weigh on this liquidity during 2009", said S & P.

The Agency added that she thought a new lowering of the note of debt GM and Ford, as well as subsidiaries of credit. In this scenario, the two giants have virtually no access to capital markets. The specialized firm JD Power expected not before us sales recovery at least eighteen months. According to experts, the market is expected to decrease by 16 this year, to only 13.6 million vehicles sold, from 16.1 million of last year. And 2009 would be worse, falling to 13.2 million registrations.