Peripheral debt will be in the front line

The treasures and agencies of the public debt must still make a few adjustments. But investors already expect that the States of the euro area that slightly reduce their debt in 2011 fundraising. After almost 1.000 billion euros of securities of medium and long term this year, 950 billion euros should be placed on the market, from Société Générale (according to an estimate of the end of October). At Natixis, is currently evokes an amount approximately EUR 800 billion for 2011 bond, whereas the Greece and the Ireland will not appeal to markets (compared to 870 billion euros this year on a comparable basis).

The gap with dizzying amounts of 2010 may appear lean and gives the impression that the reduction of budget deficits policies pursued by the country are not reflected in funding programs. It is because they also include amounts of debt to repay higher: the euro area countries must honour the deadlines of approximately EUR 570 billion in 2011. In view of this, new financing needs (intended to cover budget deficits) weigh "only" 380 billion euros.

The trio of head remains the same: the Italy, the Germany and the France. In October, the Italian Treasury Director assured the amount issued next year be reduced by 20 billion from 2010. It should therefore approach EUR 220 billion. The Germany should lift about 220 billion EUR, while the French finance law project provides, at this stage, 186 billion euros. The France and the Germany emissions fell little over 2010.

"Weakest link".

Among the most fragile States in the euro area, the Portugal should take less than 20 billion euros. For the Spain, final estimates are not carried out because the Treasury recently reported that its programme could be greatly reduced through privatization. Prior to these statements, forecasts ranged from 75 to 90 billion euros. These two countries will be, in all cases, under the close supervision of the markets. Especially the Portugal, considered to be the next "weak link" in the euro area, after the Greece and the Ireland. Only consolation, Lisbon faces its first deadline in April, which he left a little time for market conditions eventually improved.

The emissions market will, as always, more tense at the beginning of the year: from Santander, the States of the eurozone must refinance more than 150 billion euros in the first three months of 2011. "This period looks the more risky for the primary, as markets will probably still steeped in the Irish crisis", warns Cyril Regnat, at Natixis. "Peripheral" debt will be in the front line. For the States rated, prospects are better. The fact that the "fallen" bond (reimbursements and coupon payments) are high can represent a support: "the flow of cash to facilitate the absorption of new loans", explains in Société Générale. It is indeed of capital returned to the investors can reinvest them.

Other positive factors: the growth of the eurozone should slow down in 2011 from 2010 and inflation back, which creates a more enabling environment for the safer Government bonds. Moreover, the markets are awaiting an increase in the rate of the European Central Bank before the end of the year 2011, or even the following year. The year 2010 is not yet quite complete: the Germany should throw the debt this week and the Spain on December 16.