3 million units were sold instead of the 6

Bad day for the euro. Market participants now believe, wrongly or rightly, that the Federal Reserve has probably ended with its cycle of rate hikes, the magnitude of the standardization of the European Central Bank (ECB) monetary policy, is far from certain. Yesterday, the first digits of the inflation in some German Länder have testified to a decline in inflationary pressures. In September, consumer prices fell by 0.4 in the Land of Hesse, Brandenburg, Saxony, North Rhine-Westphalia and Bavaria. And the current correction on the price of oil is going in the right direction. Yesterday, brent barrel side on the ICE fell below $ 60. Since the high point of the summer, it has already abandoned 23.5.

Indeed, on the futures market, the decline in the rate of 3-month Euribor futures contracts represented a reflux of the expectations of higher rates in euro area. The rate of the December 2006 deadline thus declined 3 basis points to 3.62. And the 2007 deadlines were abandoned until 6 basis points.

In this context, the euro has been weakened yesterday against most currencies. It is exchanged at 1,2747 dollar at the end of day, 1.28 Friday night. Either a decline of 0.40. The single currency also assigned 0.33, to 148,48 yen.

Tensions on the bond

In early afternoon, the decline against the dollar was facilitated by statistics from the United States. Expected down 2.1, sales of existing homes fell to a more limited extent 0.5 last month. In total, 6.3 million units were sold, instead of the 6.2 million advance. What reassure stakeholders on the status of the real estate market in the United States. Some stakeholders, the slowdown in the sector could weigh on household consumption.

So far, this statistics has not provoked new tension on the bond market yields. In the United States, the rate to 10-year relaxed 5 basis points, to 4,548. In Europe, the French OAT rate decreased by 3 points to 3,671. The average price of existing housing sales experienced its largest decline since November 1990, 1.7 on an annual basis. The stock of unsold housing represents now 7.5 months in advance.

Dimitry Fleming at ING, these figures are likely to reinforce the Federal Reserve in its vision of a continuous weakening of the real estate market and should curb its possible desire to further increase interest rates this year. While growth should still be moderate as the year passes, ING continues to build on a decline in the rate at the turn of the year.

Fed defends well, however, to change his speech. Last week, the institution, if it was amended at the margin of its release, did not remove his bias to the increase in its monetary policy. And its members continue to assert their vigilance against the evolution of prices. "Inflation remains high and leaves no choice that to remain vigilant, reiterated yesterday the Dallas Fed President Richard Fisher us." The recent moderation in economic growth to a more sustainable pace, combined with the effects of our seventeen delayed increases previous rates, should act on inflation over time. "However, if it is proven that this is not the case, appropriate action should be taken", he said before noted "serious correction" on the US real estate market.