The second truth is that this process will be complex and slow

President Obama has not won a great success during his last visit to China, when he pleaded for the flexibility of the Chinese currency, the yuan. In fact, even if the word is polished, flexibility means mounted, while China continues to fund the United States and holds the order of 1,000 billion in US Treasury bonds (excluding neighbouring titles). Ask thus China permanent financial support, coupled with growing depreciation of that on the requests to buy more of what it already has in stock, is fairly complicated. Then came the President Trichet, with the same message of rise of the yuan.

Of course, no one can imagine obedient reactions to these repeated messages. China had started to manage the appreciation of its currency under U.S. pressure (Bush administration) and then brutally arrested last August, in connection with the crisis, say some, and the Olympic Games the other, the US election the third. Since, and after an assessment by 20 since January 2005, it strictly stabilizes its real effective exchange rate. In other words, the yuan has mounted against the dollar and fell against the euro!

Of course, the China knows that this situation cannot last: its surplus commercial, certainly much lower than before the crisis, is still of 10 billion a month, before rising with recovery ahead, and be forced to buy us bonds. To curb the appreciation of its currency pressure, it is even forced to recommend moderation at the entrance of foreign investment on its soil, investment attracted by strong interne demand and by the early appreciation of the yuan. For the first six months of the year, thus are $ 130 billion coming he exchanges, 30 of the capital and 20 of the "errors and omissions". Sketch of exit doors, she has begun to issue debt Yuan through Hong Kong, and wondered in public on the dollar (and limitations) and the IMF special drawing rights (and its attractions), history think probably stir up trouble of course, time therefore. In the meantime, she continues to invest everywhere: lands and mines in Africa, funds in the United States and Europe, pending especially companies from RD, to the status of workshop-world of lab-world. In finance, the real.

The first truth is that the monetary world will change after this crisis: If multipolar in its growth, its policies, its powers, it cannot remain linked to the single dollar with the euro as the currency substitution, not to say diversion. The second truth is that this process will be complex and slow. Two sites will be born: one "currency areas", for Asia and the Middle East also (the Dubai crisis recalls the solidarity of places and regions) and the "world currency", with a DTS reviewed and a stronger global regulation issues. This will be the subject of questions and tension, but this is not especially miss the three advantages that this involves.

First, China knows that the revaluation of its currency, at least 4 to 5 per annum on the next five years, force rebalance growth towards the application internal. At the same time, the internationalization of the yuan, regional at the beginning, is a powerful factor of integration, with the Korea, Taiwan and the Japan at least. The United States know then that it will have to consolidate their savings rate and admit a phase of moderate and true growth. Finally, Europe must take advantage of this period where the upward pressure on the euro will diminish to consolidate its public accounts and strengthen especially its growth potential (Lisbon agenda), this to this. The risk of the operation is a rising long rates, if the conditions of this rebalancing are not clear and marked. Therefore, preparations, and clear and convergent explanations: it is the interest of all.

Europe's fate not winning a crisis that it has not caused; There is mainly that it lost an improvement that it supports.