This is the scenario to the effect the stronger

The record of the orientation of the pensions Board (COR) simulates the impact on public finances in three main scenarios for longer periods of activity. Six other variants, so-called "sensitivity", are also analysed. The impact is twofold: by delaying departures, it decreases the amount of paid pensions and increasing the contributions collected by the regime since there are more employees by activity.

Extend the increase in the duration of assessment after 2020: a low result

The first scenario, the more "soft", assumed a very progressive increase of the period of assessment. It would be extended to 2050 the rule set at the 2003 reform: any increase in life expectancy would benefit height one-third retired and two-thirds to the activity. To a period of assessment of 41.5 years in 2020 and 43.5 years for the generation born in 1990, which would leave retirement in 2050, it would. Or two and a half years more than the required 41 years for a start in 2012. The "age limits" would not be changed: the opening of the rights would be maintained at 60 years, the full rate to 65 years of age.

This would lead to small economies and especially long term: of 1.4 billion in 2030 for the basic scheme of the employees of the private sector-4 of the deficit would be filled - and less than 10 billion by 2050. The impact on deficits would still be lower than in the State civil service. This is so, for all scenarios, by the fact that the number of officials are supposed to identical in all cases. "Simulated measures did not impact on the mass of the contributions, in contrast to the basic scheme of the private sector, where the reports of retirement are reflected in some cases by a retention and therefore extra contributions", details the Horn.

Raise the legal age for departure: a powerful and rapid financial impact

The second scenario is based on the rehabilitation of three years of the terminals of age: 63 years for the opening of the rights in 68 years for the full rate. The recovery would be gradual, from next year: a quarter per year for the age of the entitlement of the generation born in 1951 (which would leave in 2011) until 1962 (which would leave so soon in 2025). It is coming, on the other hand, to the period of assessment. It would to 41.5 years 2020 UI ' is that which is provided in the Act of 2003 - and would remain blocked at this level. In this hypothesis, the impact on the accounts of pension plans is especially fast and solid. The CNAV (retirement of the private database) deficit would be cut in half by 2020 and even in 2030, with "gains" then reaching EUR 16.5 billion. Arrco (arrangement of the employees of the private sector) would become even excess. The impact on the regime of officials would be larger than in the first scenario, but would remain very limited: 8 of the need for funding in 2030. Overall, such a reform would however much beyond 2030: it would more than cover 27 of the needs of financing of the CNAV in 2050 (forced to work longer, employees receive pensions higher term).

The combination of the two measures would have a more lasting effect

The third "main hypothesis examined by the Horn is a combination of the two previous variants. It would be the ages at the age of 63 and 68 posts, and it would increase the duration of 43.5 years contribution. The result would be very close to the second scenario until 2030, which is logical since the duration of contribution would increase only very gradually from 2020. The horizon of 2050, the impact would be somewhat higher than in the second scenario: 36 of the funding of the CNAV need.

The duration of contribution at age 45 in 2028 would fill a third of the deficit of the private sector

Then include "variations of sensitivity" (which augurs little future) the acceleration of the increase in the duration of contribution, to 45 years from 2028: it shrink 30 of the needs of financing of the CNAV in 2030, and even in 2050.

Even the hardest variants would not

Raising the legal age to 65 years in 2035 coupled to a period of assessment of 43.5 years (2050) boucherait half of the "hole" of the regime of basis of the private sector by 2020, 68 in 2030 (i.e. EUR 23.5 billion), and even 59 in 2050. This is the scenario to the effect the stronger. The combination of a duration of contribution at age 45 in 2028 and of legal age to 63 years would solve 62 of the needs of the private sector in 2030 (53 in 2050).

The transfer of contributions unemployment would gain of 0.4 of GDP, but not before 2020

The Act of 2003 provided for an increase in the contributions to old-age insurance in exchange for a decrease in the unemployment insurance premiums. It was then on a significant improvement in the labour market, and therefore the Unedic accounts. The crisis that triggered late 2008 delayed this toggle, but it is always provided in theory. The Government has recently updated its forecasts: it is apparent that the Unedic would be surplus "from the middle of the years 2010, deficits accumulated being cleared by 2020". In other words, could not perform the dump before this date. And its scope would be more limited than that Fillon reform envisaged: 0.4 of a point of GDP (EUR 8 billion) could be identified in the medium term in the event of an unemployment rate of 4.5 and 0.15 point of GDP if unemployment stabilized at 7. A gain of 8 billion euros of contributions coupled with the scenario of legal age to 63 years would provide 75 of the needs of financing of the private sector by 2030. But it would be conditional.