Then it would slightly to grow before stabilizing at 10

This is a particularly dark scenario developed yesterday the OFCE for the French economy in General and in particular employment. The centre for research in economics at Sciences po think, indeed, unemployment should continue to increase until 2011, due to its forecasts. Located in 9.6 of the active population end of 2009, the unemployment rate (in metropolis, within the meaning of the ILO) would reach 10.5 end of 2010. Then, it would slightly to grow before stabilizing at 10.6 end 2011. This perspective is not that of pole job or the Unedic: the public employment service and the unemployment insurance regime expect both on a more moderate growth this year (9.8 end 2010) but then anticipate a slight reflux, which would reduce the unemployment rate to 9.6 end of 2011.

Precautionary savings

"Employment has not fallen as quickly as activity during the crisis, companies have not yet completed their adjustment", justifies Eric Heyer, Deputy Director of OFCE forecasting and analysis. This adjustment would lead to 174.000 destruction of positions this year. Of the coup, and given the low activity restart, the OFCE think that the economy will still destroy 244.000 positions this year, there where Bercy is to anticipate "that" 71.000. In 2011, the trend to reverse but the number of jobs created (34,000 expected by the OFCE) is not sufficient to stem the rise in unemployment.

The labour market would therefore continue to deteriorate strongly in the two years. And if this scenario is true, unemployment will remain permanently at a high level. "We would then reach end-of-rights of many unemployed, which will increase the number of poor", says the Economist.

With a such table, OFCE think that household consumption will remain generally sluggish, rising 0.9 this year and 1.5 in 2011, at a rate much lower than that of before the crisis. Fear of unemployment, the French would continue to be a precautionary savings. "The savings rate should exceed its level of 2001 in the horizon of our prediction: it would then to 16.6, level very significantly higher than the last 20 years", note the Institute of conjuncture. Moreover, the purchasing power would be eroded by the slight resumption of inflation, but also by the decision of the social measures taken year last by public authorities. "The companies have not completed the adjustment of their production on investment and employment capacity, which, combined with a change in orientation of fiscal policy, will limit the dynamism of the expenditures of households", summarizes Eric Heyer.

More pessimistic than the IMF

In this context, the OFCE, Keynesian school, believes that the reduction of public spending "immediately shows growth, alter expectations for future growth, which will weigh in return on the Outlook for public finances, setting aside in part the initial benefit..."

In total, the OFCE expects 0.9 GDP growth this year and 1.4 in 2011, which is well below the forecast of the Government ( 1.4 and 2.5 and the consensus of economists.) This scenario is also more pessimistic than the one released Wednesday by the IMF ( 1.5 in 2010, 1.8 in 2011).